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Consolidated Projections (Base: USD 60/barrel)

IndicatorTodayYear 5Year 10Year 15
Production~1M bpd1.5–2M2–2.5M2.5–3M
GDPUSD 83B120–160B200–300B250–350B
Sovereign FundUSD 015–25B70–120B160–220B
Dividend/personUSD 05–1015–2522–30
Fund return (5.5%)USD 0825–1,375M3,850–6,600M8,800–12,100M

Calculation: fund x 5.5% return x 10% payout / 40M people. See stress test below for the explicit model. At USD 70-80/barrel, figures multiply — see The Dream.

If Brent averages USD 80 instead of USD 60

The fund would grow to USD 500B+ and dividends would double. At USD 60 the plan works. Anything above is a bonus.

Sensitivity Analysis: Stress Test by Oil Price​

The plan uses USD 60/barrel as a conservative base (EIA STEO, Mar. 2026). But price is the most volatile variable. This table shows the impact under each scenario.

Model Assumptions​

Year 5 Production:  1.75M bpd (midpoint of 1.5–2M range)
Year 10 Production: 2.25M bpd (midpoint of 2–2.5M range)
Year 15 Production: 2.75M bpd (midpoint of 2.5–3M range)
Cost per barrel:    USD 37.50 (average USD 35–40, heavy crude)
Fund contribution:  30% of net oil revenue
Fund return:        5.5% annual (conservative average of 4–7% range)
Dividend:           10% of fund net income to 40M people

Source for costs and returns: data-standards.md — barrel cost USD 35–40 (extraction + blending + transport + processing); fund return 4–7% annual (conservative vs. Norway 15.1% in 2025).

Explicit Calculation (Base Scenario example, Year 5)​

Gross revenue    = 1,750,000 bpd × 365 days × USD 60  = USD 38,325M
Operating cost   = 1,750,000 bpd × 365 days × USD 37.50 = USD 23,953M
Net revenue      = USD 38,325M − USD 23,953M = USD 14,372M
Fund contribution = 30% × USD 14,372M = USD 4,312M/year
ScenarioPriceMargin/barrelNet Revenue Year 5Net Revenue Year 10Accumulated Fund Year 15Dividend/person/year
CrisisUSD 40USD 2.50USD 1,597MUSD 2,054MUSD 15,000–20,000MUSD 2–5
LowUSD 50USD 12.50USD 7,984MUSD 10,269MUSD 80,000–110,000MUSD 11–15
BaseUSD 60USD 22.50USD 14,372MUSD 18,484MUSD 160,000–220,000MUSD 22–30
FavorableUSD 70USD 32.50USD 20,759MUSD 26,699MUSD 250,000–340,000MUSD 34–47
BoomUSD 80USD 42.50USD 27,147MUSD 34,914MUSD 350,000–470,000MUSD 48–65
Scenarios < USD 50: Risk Zone

At USD 40/barrel, the net margin collapses to USD 2.50/barrel — barely covering operating costs. The sovereign fund grows minimally and citizen dividends are symbolic. At this price:

  • No capital for tech infrastructure investment
  • Debt restructuring becomes unsustainable
  • Stabilization fund + price floor in forward contracts required

Mitigation: Forward contracts include a guaranteed minimum price (floor) of USD 55. If Brent falls below USD 50 for more than 2 quarters, the stabilization fund activates.

Scenarios > USD 70: Acceleration

At USD 70+, each additional dollar generates ~USD 639M/year in extra net revenue (at 1.75M bpd). At USD 80, the fund reaches levels that enable:

  • Citizen dividends of USD 48–65/person/year (family of 4: USD 192–260)
  • 100% financing of tech infrastructure with no additional debt
  • Reaching Norway's population-adjusted fund level in ~20 years instead of 30

Every USD 1 above USD 60 is direct upside to the sovereign fund.

Methodological Note​

The accumulated fund at Year 15 includes: (1) annual contributions of 30% of net oil revenue over 15 years, with production growing per Rystad Energy; (2) compound return at 5.5% annually; (3) does NOT include diversification revenue (tech, tourism, agro) which is added separately. Ranges reflect variations in the production ramp-up pace.

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